COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Bardella's Opponents

Detailed profiles of the main potential competitors for the 2027 presidential election

A Fragmented Political Landscape

As 2027 approaches, the French political landscape is characterized by unprecedented fragmentation. Emmanuel Macron's inability to run for a third term and Marine Le Pen's probable ineligibility open up an unprecedented field of possibilities. Jordan Bardella faces a constellation of opponents with varied profiles, from the radical left to the conservative right.

According to November 2025 polls, Bardella dominates the first round and would win the second round against all his potential opponents. This favorable dynamic nevertheless raises the question of the republican front and the ability of traditional political forces to unite to block the National Rally.

Profiles of Potential Candidates

Édouard Philippe

Horizons54 ansCentre-droit
Voting intentions
18-22%

Maire du Havre, Ancien Premier ministre

Profile

Former Prime Minister under Emmanuel Macron (2017-2020), Édouard Philippe embodies governmental experience and moderate right-wing politics. Mayor of Le Havre since 2020, he positions himself as the natural candidate for a right-center union.

Strengths

  • Solid governmental experience (3 years at Matignon)
  • High popularity (40% positive opinion)
  • Credibility on sovereign issues
  • Image of seriousness and competence

Weaknesses

  • Perceived as too close to Emmanuel Macron
  • Horizons remains a minority force
  • Refusal of primary divides the right
  • Contested Macronist record

Program

Union of the right and centerStrengthening property rightsModerate pro-European lineAssertive security policy

"For 2027, I want to build this union of the right and center"

Laurent Wauquiez

Les Républicains49 ansDroite conservatrice
Voting intentions
15-18%

Président de la région Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes

Profile

President of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region and former LR president, Laurent Wauquiez embodies assertive conservative right-wing politics. He seeks to reconquer the traditional right-wing electorate against the RN.

Strengths

  • Strong territorial anchoring (AURA region)
  • Long political experience
  • Credibility with the traditional right
  • Ability to embody an assertive right

Weaknesses

  • Failure at the head of LR (2017-2019)
  • Weakened and divided party
  • Competition with Philippe on the right
  • Image sometimes perceived as rigid

Program

Reconquest of the right-wing electorateAssertive conservative lineNational sovereigntyAuthority and republican order

"The right must assert its values against the RN"

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

La France Insoumise74 ansGauche radicale
Voting intentions
15-20%

Leader de LFI, Député européen

Profile

Historic leader of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is on his fourth presidential attempt. His steadily increasing scores (11% in 2012, 20% in 2017, 22% in 2022) make him the main representative of the radical left.

Strengths

  • Highly mobilized activist base
  • Presidential campaign experience
  • Steadily increasing scores
  • Ability to unite the radical left

Weaknesses

  • Advanced age (74 years in 2027)
  • Divisive and radical image
  • Internal left battle with Glucksmann
  • Difficulties getting past the 1st round

Program

Sixth RepublicEcological planningMaximum wage and redistributionExit from European treaties

"The future in common: the citizen revolution"

Raphaël Glucksmann

Place Publique / PS45 ansGauche modérée
Voting intentions
12-16%

Député européen

Profile

Member of the European Parliament and PS-Place Publique list leader in the 2024 European elections, Raphaël Glucksmann embodies the renewal of social-democratic left. Son of philosopher André Glucksmann, he carries a pro-European and humanist line.

Strengths

  • Image of renewal on the left
  • European and international profile
  • Good result in 2024 European elections
  • Ability to attract the moderate left

Weaknesses

  • Lack of governmental experience
  • Weakened Socialist Party
  • Difficult battle against Mélenchon
  • Still limited notoriety

Program

European social democracyEcological and social transitionDefense of human rightsRegulation of capitalism

"The left must find its way back to power through reason"

Marine Tondelier

Les Écologistes38 ansÉcologiste
Voting intentions
5-8%

Secrétaire nationale des Écologistes

Profile

National Secretary of the Ecologists since 2022, Marine Tondelier officially announced her candidacy in October 2025. She embodies the new ecologist generation and places climate urgency at the heart of the presidential debate.

Strengths

  • Represents the climate issue
  • Ability to mobilize young people
  • Female profile in a masculine race
  • Generational renewal

Weaknesses

  • Weakened ecologist party
  • Lack of national recognition
  • Difficulty exceeding 5-10%
  • Competition from the radical left

Program

Climate urgencyRapid energy transitionSocial and ecological justiceParticipatory democracy

"Ecology or chaos"

Analyse comparative : Bardella face à ses adversaires

Atouts de Bardella

  • Dynamique favorable : En tête dans tous les sondages (novembre 2025), gagnant au 2e tour face à tous les adversaires
  • Jeunesse : 30 ans, incarnation du renouvellement générationnel face à des adversaires plus âgés
  • Base électorale solide : RN premier parti de France, implantation territoriale forte
  • Absence de Marine Le Pen : Peut incarner un RN "dédiabolisé" sans le poids du passé lepéniste

Défis pour Bardella

  • Manque d'expérience : Aucune expérience gouvernementale face à des adversaires rodés (Philippe, Wauquiez)
  • Opposition interne : Cadres marinistes réticents (Chenu, Tanguy) qui préfèrent Marine Le Pen
  • Image clivante : Le RN reste perçu comme extrême malgré la stratégie de dédiabolisation
  • Front républicain : Risque d'union de tous les adversaires au 2e tour comme en 2017 et 2022

Scénarios possibles pour 2027

Premier tour (hypothèses basées sur les sondages actuels)

Jordan Bardella
25-30%
É. Philippe / L. Wauquiez
18-22%
J-L. Mélenchon / R. Glucksmann
15-20%
M. Tondelier
5-8%

Enjeu clé du second tour

Le front républicain constitue l'enjeu majeur du second tour. La capacité des adversaires de Bardella à s'unir pour faire barrage au RN, comme en 2017 et 2022, déterminera l'issue du scrutin. Cependant, les sondages de novembre 2025 montrent pour la première fois que Bardella l'emporterait même au second tour, suggérant un affaiblissement potentiel de cette dynamique anti-RN qui a jusqu'ici empêché l'extrême droite d'accéder au pouvoir.

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