Bardella's Opponents
Detailed profiles of the main potential competitors for the 2027 presidential election
A Fragmented Political Landscape
As 2027 approaches, the French political landscape is characterized by unprecedented fragmentation. Emmanuel Macron's inability to run for a third term and Marine Le Pen's probable ineligibility open up an unprecedented field of possibilities. Jordan Bardella faces a constellation of opponents with varied profiles, from the radical left to the conservative right.
According to November 2025 polls, Bardella dominates the first round and would win the second round against all his potential opponents. This favorable dynamic nevertheless raises the question of the republican front and the ability of traditional political forces to unite to block the National Rally.
Profiles of Potential Candidates
Édouard Philippe
Maire du Havre, Ancien Premier ministre
Profile
Former Prime Minister under Emmanuel Macron (2017-2020), Édouard Philippe embodies governmental experience and moderate right-wing politics. Mayor of Le Havre since 2020, he positions himself as the natural candidate for a right-center union.
Strengths
- Solid governmental experience (3 years at Matignon)
- High popularity (40% positive opinion)
- Credibility on sovereign issues
- Image of seriousness and competence
Weaknesses
- Perceived as too close to Emmanuel Macron
- Horizons remains a minority force
- Refusal of primary divides the right
- Contested Macronist record
Program
"For 2027, I want to build this union of the right and center"
Laurent Wauquiez
Président de la région Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Profile
President of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region and former LR president, Laurent Wauquiez embodies assertive conservative right-wing politics. He seeks to reconquer the traditional right-wing electorate against the RN.
Strengths
- Strong territorial anchoring (AURA region)
- Long political experience
- Credibility with the traditional right
- Ability to embody an assertive right
Weaknesses
- Failure at the head of LR (2017-2019)
- Weakened and divided party
- Competition with Philippe on the right
- Image sometimes perceived as rigid
Program
"The right must assert its values against the RN"
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Leader de LFI, Député européen
Profile
Historic leader of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is on his fourth presidential attempt. His steadily increasing scores (11% in 2012, 20% in 2017, 22% in 2022) make him the main representative of the radical left.
Strengths
- Highly mobilized activist base
- Presidential campaign experience
- Steadily increasing scores
- Ability to unite the radical left
Weaknesses
- Advanced age (74 years in 2027)
- Divisive and radical image
- Internal left battle with Glucksmann
- Difficulties getting past the 1st round
Program
"The future in common: the citizen revolution"
Raphaël Glucksmann
Député européen
Profile
Member of the European Parliament and PS-Place Publique list leader in the 2024 European elections, Raphaël Glucksmann embodies the renewal of social-democratic left. Son of philosopher André Glucksmann, he carries a pro-European and humanist line.
Strengths
- Image of renewal on the left
- European and international profile
- Good result in 2024 European elections
- Ability to attract the moderate left
Weaknesses
- Lack of governmental experience
- Weakened Socialist Party
- Difficult battle against Mélenchon
- Still limited notoriety
Program
"The left must find its way back to power through reason"
Marine Tondelier
Secrétaire nationale des Écologistes
Profile
National Secretary of the Ecologists since 2022, Marine Tondelier officially announced her candidacy in October 2025. She embodies the new ecologist generation and places climate urgency at the heart of the presidential debate.
Strengths
- Represents the climate issue
- Ability to mobilize young people
- Female profile in a masculine race
- Generational renewal
Weaknesses
- Weakened ecologist party
- Lack of national recognition
- Difficulty exceeding 5-10%
- Competition from the radical left
Program
"Ecology or chaos"
Analyse comparative : Bardella face à ses adversaires
Atouts de Bardella
- Dynamique favorable : En tête dans tous les sondages (novembre 2025), gagnant au 2e tour face à tous les adversaires
- Jeunesse : 30 ans, incarnation du renouvellement générationnel face à des adversaires plus âgés
- Base électorale solide : RN premier parti de France, implantation territoriale forte
- Absence de Marine Le Pen : Peut incarner un RN "dédiabolisé" sans le poids du passé lepéniste
Défis pour Bardella
- Manque d'expérience : Aucune expérience gouvernementale face à des adversaires rodés (Philippe, Wauquiez)
- Opposition interne : Cadres marinistes réticents (Chenu, Tanguy) qui préfèrent Marine Le Pen
- Image clivante : Le RN reste perçu comme extrême malgré la stratégie de dédiabolisation
- Front républicain : Risque d'union de tous les adversaires au 2e tour comme en 2017 et 2022
Scénarios possibles pour 2027
Premier tour (hypothèses basées sur les sondages actuels)
Enjeu clé du second tour
Le front républicain constitue l'enjeu majeur du second tour. La capacité des adversaires de Bardella à s'unir pour faire barrage au RN, comme en 2017 et 2022, déterminera l'issue du scrutin. Cependant, les sondages de novembre 2025 montrent pour la première fois que Bardella l'emporterait même au second tour, suggérant un affaiblissement potentiel de cette dynamique anti-RN qui a jusqu'ici empêché l'extrême droite d'accéder au pouvoir.
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